Frankly, the story as presented by the Iranians makes no sense to me (not because I think that they are lying, but because there are a lot of information holes which need to be plugged). Why did the Iranian civil and military authorities not close down the Iranian airspace (which the US side, by the way, seemed to have done). Next, did the Iranian air defenses not get all the flight plans of all the aircraft in Iranian space? I had the privilege to participate in a few air defense exercises as a young man, and not only did we have full access to all the flight plans of any civilian aircraft over all of Europe, we even had their transponder signals live on our main displays. Was the Ukrainian transponder on? I strongly suspect that yes as a PIC cannot take off without this instrument in perfect working order (at least this was the case with European airlines in the 80s and 90s). The commander of the SAM unit explained that he had 10 seconds to take a decision and that he got NO order from the higher instances (regimental, divisional, national air defense authorities). I don’t have any reason to doubt him, but if he indeed speaks the truth, then this shows a glaring weakness of the Iranian air defenses. Not only was his audio/video call for instructions not answered, the air defense networks were either down or frozen. HOW could that happen in a theoretically very redundant and highly survivable military network?! Then there is the Ukrainian PIC. The logical thing for him to do would have been to contact his corporate bosses in Kiev and they might even have contacted the Ukrainian authorities. The question is WHO and WHY took the decision to take off when the situation was self-evidently fantastically dangerous. Questions, questions and more questions indeed…
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2020-01-12
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2020-01-12
After the shoot down of the Ukrainian flight PS752 the big question within Iran and within its military and political circles is what went wrong.
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2020-01-11
Throughout his military command of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ elite Quds Force, the late Major General Qassem Soleimani ensured that Iran had as its disposal an intricate network of military proxy forces, sympathetic Shi’a Islamic faithful, and armed wings of foreign political and religious allies prepared to respond to an American and/or Israeli military attack. With the Donald Trump administration’s assassination of Soleimani and Iraqi Shi’a militia leaders, all of whom were popular in Iran and Iraq for helping to defeat the Saudi/Israeli-supported Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, the Iranian retaliatory network established by Soleimani stands at a hair-trigger response to the U.S. premeditated murders. The network of Iranian proxies and allies crafted under Soleimani’s guidance — mostly non-state actors but with a few state players – will be Soleimani’s everlasting legacy in future history books on the Middle East and strategic warfare.
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2020-01-10
The larger problem to which Trump calls our attention is the militarism that pervades the American political class—the conviction that accumulating and putting to use military power expresses the essence of so-called American global leadership. That notion is dead wrong and has been the source of endless mischief. Congress is considering measures that will constrain Trump from any further use of force targeting Iran, hoping thereby to avoid an all-out war. This is all to the good. But the larger requirement is for our political establishment generally to wean itself off of its infatuation with military power. Only then can we restore a measure of self-restraint to America’s national security policy
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2020-01-09
Pompeo and Pence reportedly were the top officials pushing Trump to kill Soleimani. They’re also devout evangelicals and major allies of CUFI. This is not a coincidence. While the organization is best known for its unflagging “support” for Israel—that is, for Israel’s expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank and protracted erasure of the possibility of a future Palestinian state—it has, since its founding in 2006, depicted Iran as an existential threat to Israel. The group opposed President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, denouncing it as “dangerous for Israel, the United States and the entire world,” and in the Trump administration, CUFI has found hope for a more bellicose posture.
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2020-01-09
On the same day dust was settling was from President Trump’s decision to assassinate Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Major General Qasem Soleimani, a striking news story largely went unnoticed as pundits, experts, and analysts attempted to explain Trump’s potentially region destabilizing action. Bloomberg reported last week that Richard Goldberg — one of the National Security Council’s (NSC) most outspoken Iran hawks, and a close ally of former National Security Advisor John Bolton — was departing the council “for personal reasons.” However, the Bloomberg story didn’t deliver its real bombshell until the last sentence: “Goldberg will return to [the Foundation for Defense of Democracies], which continued to pay his salary during his time on the National Security Council.”
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2020-01-08
American Congress and citizens are divided on the “Iran War”. Allies are also not in full support of the “Iran War”. Regional environments are not in the US favor, strong resistance from Russia and China is also possible (just like in Syria). Pakistan’s geopolitical location is the pivot and may face more severe challenges. While Pakistan was struggling its survival after 4 decades of Afghan mesh, it may not be ready to face such big challenges foreseen from US-Iran tension. The international community may act and may act swiftly before it is too late. Save the precious human lives, avert the bloodshed and proactively promote global peace, which is need of time. All Peace-Loving individuals and nations, may raise their voice for Peace and struggle hard to avert any big disaster.
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2020-01-08
Allies value dependability and transparency. Which is why President Trump's clash with Iran, which blindsided America's Gulf Arab allies, strengthened their sense that the United States is becoming a liability.
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2020-01-08
As of January 2020, the United States possessed an overwhelming advantage in conventional military capabilities in the Persian Gulf – dominating in both air and naval power. But Iran’s unconventional capabilities, along with its array of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, posed a threat to American assets and partner forces.
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2020-01-08
Following a missile attack at a US airbase in Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of top Iranian commander Lt. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) warned Washington against any more provocation.