On March 21, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2018 Article IV consultation[1] with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Following a strong rebound in the aftermath of the 2016 nuclear agreement, real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2017/18. In the first half of 2017/18, recovery broadened to the non-oil sector, aided by supportive fiscal and monetary policies and a recovery in construction and services activity. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7 percent in the first half of 2017/18, but remained particularly high for youth and women. Inflation averaged 9.9 percent during the first 11 months of 2017/18 aided by moderation in food prices and stable administered prices. The foreign exchange market experienced volatility in early 2018; following the increase in interest rates in February, the spread between the official and the market rate narrowed to under 20 percent.
Nuclear Issue
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2018-03-29
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2018-03-05
[...] As of today, I can state that Iran is implementing its nuclear-related commitments. [...]
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2018-03-03
The CIA’s “Operation Merlin,” which involved providing Iran with a flawed design for a nuclear weapon and resulted in an alleged whistleblower going to prison, was the perfect example of creating intelligence in order to justify operations, reports Gareth Porter.
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2018-03-03
The CIA’s “Operation Merlin,” which involved providing Iran with a flawed design for a nuclear weapon and resulted in an alleged whistleblower going to prison, was the perfect example of creating intelligence in order to justify operations, reports Gareth Porter.
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2018-01-02
This article examines the major factors that led Iran and the global powers to reach a deal. Those factors included each side's willingness to cash in its main bargaining chips (a short breakout time for Iran and sanctions for the United States), a change in leadership in each country, and a shifting geopolitical context. Foremost, however, was the US willingness to change its demands of Iran from no nuclear enrichment to no nuclear bomb. The JCPOA has had major implications for the global powers and Iran, affecting especially the bilateral US-Iran relationship, the regional security situations, and US domestic politics.
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2017-08-28
Although candidate Donald Trump repeatedly criticized Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear agreement, his administration has twice decided to remain in the deal. It so certified to Congress, most recently in July, as required by law. Before the second certification, Trump asked repeatedly for alternatives to acquiescing yet again in a policy he clearly abhorred. But no such options were forthcoming, despite “a sharp series of exchanges” between the president and his advisers, as the New York Times and similar press reports characterized it. Many outside the administration wondered how this was possible: Was Trump in control, or were his advisers? Defining a compelling rationale to exit Obama’s failed nuclear deal and elaborating a game plan to do so are quite easy. In fact, Steve Bannon asked me in late July to draw up just such a game plan for the president — the option he didn’t have — which I did.
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2017-07-14
{...] In fact, the deal is doing exactly what is was supposed to do: prevent Iran from acquiring enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, demonstrate to the Iranian public the benefits of cooperation with the international community, and buy time for potential changes in Iranian politics and foreign policy.
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2017-07-10
[...] Iran had previously attempted to build a nuclear power plant at the Bushehr site, and in 1974 contracted the German company Siemens (then KraftWerk) to build two reactors. The first unit was approaching completion when Iran halted the project as a result of the 1979 Iranian revolution. [2] During the Iran-Iraq war, the reactors sustained severe damage in an Iraqi bombing raid. [3] After the war, Siemens refused to continue with construction in the face of extreme diplomatic pressure from the United States.
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2017-05-05
What’s the status of Iran’s ballistic missile program? In this article, Paulina Izewicz tackles the question by focusing on 1) the program’s history and scope; 2) the part it continues to play in Iran’s statecraft, national discourse and military doctrine; 3) the attempts by others to curtail and defend against Iranian missile systems; 4) the exclusion of missile development restrictions from the Iran nuclear deal; and 5) what the EU and other international actors might do to engage with Tehran in the future on its missile program.
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2017-02-04
... Opponents of the JCPOA, and in particular Israel, have claimed that the missile tests represent a "gross" violation of the nuclear agreement. This is sheer fabrication. The text of the JCPOA itself mentions absolutely nothing about Iran’s missile program and, thus, the tests, regardless of how one interprets or views them, have nothing to do with the JCPOA. ...