Nuclear Issue

  • 2022-01-07

    1) Iran can have enough weapon-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon in as little as three weeks. 2) Iran could detonate a nuclear explosive underground in as little as six months, rattling the Middle East profoundly, destabilizing the region perhaps irretrievably. 3) Iran has made key irreversible nuclear advances, perforating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, perhaps irretrievably. 4) Iran is mastering the construction and operation of advanced centrifuges far faster than anticipated. 5) Iran remains one of the most egregious violators of strategic trade controls and sanctions.

  • 2021-12-22

      This video describes the status of the negotiations on the JPCOA but is broader than that.  It also demonstrates how the USA negotiates.

    • 2021-12-15

      As negotiations to restore the JCPOA continue in Vienna, the European participants — the UK, France, and Germany (known as the E3) — issued on December 14 a stark warning before the U.N. Security Council meeting on the implementation of resolution 2231 (which enshrined the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015). In a joint statement to the media, the E3 accused Iran of accelerating its nuclear program, curtailing the monitoring by the IAEA, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, and, as a result, “undermining international peace and security.” Iran is further blamed for “walking back” on compromises reached by the previous negotiating team and “presenting additional maximalist demands.” European diplomats warn darkly that Iran’s escalation of its nuclear program is nearing the point where the JCPOA will be “hollowed out,” and that “we are rapidly reaching the end of the road.”

    • 2021-12-09

      At the Vienna talks on restoring the Iran nuclear deal, the US and EU are accusing Iran of refusing to compromise. Mohammad Marandi, a University of Tehran professor advising the Iran delegation in Vienna, says that the compromise was the nuclear deal itself, and the problem is the US refusal to abide by its own commitments and lift the sanctions that target Iranian civilians.

    • 2021-12-07

      The head of the Central Intelligence Agency said Monday that the United States does not have evidence that Iran has made a decision to weaponize its nuclear program. The US spy agency “doesn’t see any evidence that Iran’s Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei] has made a decision to move to weaponize,” CIA Director William Burns told the Wall Street Journal’s annual CEO Council, according to CBS News.

    • 2021-12-07

      Iran and the world powers met last week in Vienna for a new round of nuclear deal talks, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. The meeting, which Iran’s top negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani deemed “fruitful,” is scheduled to resume on Wednesday. But such optimism about the negotiations stands in stark contrast to the West’s pessimism. […] In short, the world powers and Iran should articulate a sustainable implementation plan for the nuclear deal—one that allows both sides to fulfill their commitments moving forward without interruption. To revive and sustain the Iran nuclear deal, negotiators might consider two clear (if not simple) steps. First, all parties should uphold their JCPOA obligations. This means that the United States and other world powers should lift all sanctions imposed on Iran based on the nuclear deal’s parameters, and Iran should resume meeting its full JCPOA obligations. Second, the UN Security Council should adopt a new resolution mandating that all nuclear deal parties and all UN member states implement UN Resolution 2231—the formal JCPOA agreement—completely, correctly, and without discrimination. The new resolution could establish a special international court to address differences between Iran and the United States in the nuclear deal’s implementation. Moreover, the resolution could establish an escrow security fund to compensate potential damages caused by breach or non-performance by one or more parties. After all, 100 wise men might agree that a revived nuclear deal that is destined to fail would not be much of a deal at all. But a revived nuclear deal built to endure, well, that would be cause for optimism.

    • 2021-12-06

      Iranian foreign policy has been in high-gear over the last week. As Iranian negotiators made their way back to Iran’s capital from the seventh round of nuclear talks in Vienna, the UAE’s top national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived in Tehran. Al Nahyan’s visit is the latest example of the significant shift underway in the foreign policies of Iran’s Arab neighbours, including in their views of the Iran nuclear deal.

    • 2021-12-02

      In the last two years, Iran has accelerated its deployment of advanced centrifuges, following a lull of three years created by limits in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Iran has demonstrated its commitment to replace the IR-1 centrifuge with advanced centrifuges, which can produce considerably more enriched uranium.

    • 2021-12-02

      This week, the Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) is holding its second meeting at UN headquarters. Despite the absence of Israel and the United States at the conference and at an earlier session in 2019, this year’s meeting could lead to significant progress toward a WMD-free zone given recent changes in the Middle East security situation. Those changes include the Abraham Accords formalizing relations between Israel and four other countries in the proposed zone, the new government coalition in Israel, the changing US policy toward the Iran nuclear deal, the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, and progress on Libyan peace talks. These events have improved the prospects for dialogue among key actors in the region.

    • 2021-11-30

      The judges have voted and the results are in: President Donald Trump’s decision to tear up the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 — a decision urged on by his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu — was one of the dumbest, most poorly thought out and counterproductive U.S. national security decisions of the post-Cold War era. But don’t just take my word for it. Moshe Ya’alon was the Israeli defense minister when the nuclear agreement was signed, and he strongly opposed it. But at a conference last week, he said, according to a summary by Israel’s Haaretz newspaper, “as bad as that deal was, Trump’s decision to withdraw from it — with Netanyahu’s encouragement — was even worse.” Ya’alon called it “the main mistake of the last decade” in Iran policy.