Iran has been one of President Trump’s main foreign policy issues. By withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and re-imposing sanctions lifted as part of it, his administration re-orchestrated the decades-long enmity between Iran and the U.S. The “maximum pressure” campaign, which targeted every relevant and sanctionable Iranian business and economic entity, aimed to force Iran to succumb to a “negotiating” table on American terms. So far, however, Washington has not achieved what it demanded from Tehran. Despite mounting political, economic and military pressure, Iran developed its own strategy of “active resistance”—a strategy of pushback that aims at maximizing the costs for the U.S and its regional supporters for their anti-Iran policies while simultaneously building up Iran’s leverage vis-à-vis the U.S. If Trump is re-elected in November, Iran will stick to its active resistance strategy, which, in Tehran’s eyes, has been more effective than the maximum pressure campaign pursued by Washington.  Trump’s re-election would mean a continuation of his administration’s current Iran policy. While the maximum pressure has yet failed to achieve its stated objectives, there seems to be no alternative to replace this ill-fated policy anyways. By resorting to a maximalist approach – outlined in the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s 12-point demands — Trump’s Iran team deprived the administration of other alternative options. Consequently, there is little to no room for change in the maximum pressure in Trump’s second term.

Various U.S. scholars and policy wonks have warned that the burgeoning partnership will compromise our interests in the Middle East. Analysis predicts an expanded Chinese foothold in the region and a massive market for sanctioned Iranian oil. On the surface, it indeed appears that such an agreement will undermine two major U.S. foreign policy objectives: taming its most powerful peer competitor and neutralizing its most troublesome Middle East foe. But this agreement will not prove entirely advantageous to besieged Iran. The Islamic Republic, buffeted by Western sanctions, international isolation, a hawkish Israel, and, of course, COVID-19, has lost considerable ground economically and militarily. Aspiring for leadership in the Muslim world, Iran has no choice but to rely on its soft-power influence. 

In a meeting with Chairman of the Russian State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Leonid Slutsky in Tehran on Sunday, Zarif added that given the level of cooperation between the two countries in different fields, it is necessary to update the document on long-term cooperation to the level of strategic relations. […] During the meeting, Zarif and Slutsky also discussed ways to boost bilateral ties, especially in the economic sector, maintain the multilateral nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and solve ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, as well as enhance bilateral cooperation on regional and international developments.

By increasing pressure on both China and Iran, the US has encouraged the two countries to forge a common front. Though the Sino-Iranian a relationship is still a long way from becoming a new axis, the recent negotiations show that such an arrangement is possible. American foreign policymakers should take note. The US will need to try placing a wedge between China and Iran, which requires deciding which one poses the greater threat. Americans may want nothing more than to leave the Middle East once and for all. But the fact is that the strategic competition with China will not play out only in East Asia.