Sanctions, Military Strikes, and Other Potential Actions Against Iran

06 Nov 2012

Federation of American Scientists. FAS Special Report. 

Executive Summary

A great deal of effort has been devoted to analyzing Iran’s nuclear program and identifying possible actions the United States might take to thwart what many believe is a project designed to build nuclear weapons. In October 2012, amid concerns that surprisingly little research addressed the potential broad outcomes of possible U.S.-led actions against Iran, researchers at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) assembled nine renowned subject matter experts (SMEs) to investigate one underexplored question that looms large: What are the potential effects on the global economy of U.S. actions against Iran? Collectively representing expertise in national security, economics, energy markets, and finance, the SMEs gathered for a one-day elicitation workshop to consider the global economic impacts of six hypothetical scenarios involving U.S.-led actions.

The report does not contain specific policy advice. Rather, it provides a starting point for discussion and further analyses relating to one category of potential outcomes – the global economic impact – associated with the policy choices before U.S. decision makers today. It is important to note that the dollar figures assigned to the potential outcomes of the six scenarios are not attributed to any of the individual subject matter experts.

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